Instead of a clear number one pick, my picks for the men's champion come in tiers. The first consists of the first, second, and fourth (yes, I skipped third) ranked players: Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray.
Nadal has not had the best summer since winning his second Wimbledon, a fast moving hard court is by far his worst surface, and he has traditionally not been at his physical best this late in the season. But Nadal WANTS this title, he wants to finish his Career Slam and prove to everyone (especially himself) that he's the best player in the world on any surface. The last time Nadal was this determined to win a title, he ended up winning Wimbledon, so don't count him out.
Andy Murray has had a slightly better summer season than Rafa since losing to Nadal at Wimbledon, but has looked sluggish and tired in his latest matches. He has also failed to bring his best game in his past matches against Nadal or Federer at the Slams. But if he could overcome whatever stops him from playing his best against either of these two when it really counts, he could finally pull off his first Slam.
Roger Federer is Roger Federer. He hadn't looked great this year since winning the Australian Open, then won in Cinncinati last week, looking like the dominant champion that he once was. his game might not be as flawless as it used to be, and his first serve percentage might still go down more than it did, but he has the constant mental advantage of simply being Roger Federer and being driven to retake his number one ranking.
My second tier is varied, to say the least: Novak Djokovic is the third seed but hasn't had the best results lately, and plays poorly in warm weather; if Andy Roddick gets his energy back after a recent fight with mono, he would have the crowd support, and he still has a great hard court game; but the American crowd could be divided if Roddick meets fellow American Mardy Fish, who has completely revamed his game after losing 20 pounds, and has numerous wins against top opponents (including Nadal, Murray, and Roddick) to help his confidence. The biggest problem for all these men is that they share the same quarter. Rounding them off is Robin Soderling, who could meet Federer in the quarters, and if he pulls off that upset, he and his giant forehand would be moving on with confidence into the semis.
There are plenty more men who might make a good showing, but it would be a genuine surprise if anyone other than my seven top picks comes away from New York with a trophy.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Thanks for the breakdown of the men's draw also, and to be honest, I'm kind of leaning towards Murray to win his first title. Still don't think that Nadal is quite ready on these hard courts and in this atmosphere to win the title. Could be wrong, but that is my feeling. Federer still has a few more titles in him, but I think that it is not quite his time for the one final ride at Flushing Meadows, which you know is coming (like Sampras winning and then riding off into the sunset). So by kind of default, I lean towards Murray, the younger,fitter of the big 3, whose game is bulit for quick hard courts like those in New York. For a dark horse, I think Soderling has a real shot at this title, since his whole game seems to be tailor made for this surface, and he knows how to win the big match also. Oh, and I have always been curious whether his forehead will actually relect the moonlight or not. I guess we shall see
ReplyDeleteI think it's Soderling's hair that makes his head look that big. It naturally curls up and away so it elongates his already massive melon. And with all the stadium lights, we sadly will not get a good shot of the New York moonlight glinting off his shiny Swedish head.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Federer will bow out gracefully and quitely like Sampras, though I am curious to know how he'd react to his ranking slipping considerably as he aged. It would be the true test of a champion to know how he reacts when he's no longer a champion or anywhere close to a favorite. Mind you, we're not there yet, so we'll just all wait and see. And for now, he's still among the best players in the world.